Nick Scali is the latest retailer hit by the consumer pull-back
On first blush, the much-anticipated consumer slowdown does not appear to have impacted Nick Scali (ASX:NCK), which reported half-year 2023 results earlier this week. But delving more deeply into the trading update reveals a different story.
Nick Scali’s 1H23 sales revenue of $283.9 million was up 57.4 per cent on H1 FY22. Net profit after tax (NPAT) was $60.6 million, which was ahead of the company’s own November market guidance of $56-59 million and also ahead of consensus of $56.6 million. The half-year NPAT was up 70.2 per cent on the corresponding half last year.
Importantly, improvements in the buying and ranging at newly-acquired Plush and lower freight costs (supply chain scale / synergy benefits) have meant an improvement in Nick Scali Group margins. The company reported group gross profit margins for the first half of FY23 of 62.0 per cent, up one per cent on FY22, and up 2.5 per cent compared to the second half of FY22. In November and December gross margin is estimated at 63.4 per cent from just over 61 per cent in the July-October period. As mentioned, this was driven by Plush where the 1H FY23 margin improved to 60.5 per cent from 54.8 per cent for FY22.
Additionally, synergies have reduced the cost of doing business for the Plush business, falling from $58 million annualised prior to the acquisition to $38 million. This means Plush CODB synergies are now annualising at $20 million up from prior expectations for $18 million.
Towards the end of the half, conditions appear to have deteriorated.
While year-on-year group sales orders between July and October rose 55 per cent, as Nick Scali cycled lockdowns, the period November to December revealed a decline of approximately 41 per cent year-on-year (cycling a reopening-related boom in the prior corresponding period). At Plush, monthly average orders are estimated to have halved from nearly $16 million to just over $7 million.
But these numbers are all backward-looking.
Importantly the company provided a trading update to the end of January 2023 – the first month of the second half. Providing something of a positive spin (read carefully) on the most recent month, the company noted (emphasis added):
“January is our strongest trading month and was better than our expectations
- We had anticipated a slowdown compared to the COVID-19 boom, yet trading remains better than pre-COVID-19 despite rising interest rates
- Nick Scali brand January written sales orders were 1 per cent below January 2022 and 22.9 per cent above pre-COVID-19 January 2020
- The 2H FY23 result will depend upon trading from February to April and at this point it is difficult to provide further guidance”
In other words, the strongest trading month for the year was weaker than last year. This suggests the consumer pull-back is underway and arguably does not bode well for the rest of the half.
1H23 written orders were also below consensus. Keeping in mind prices are estimated to have increased circa 20-25 per cent compared to pre-COVID prices, Nick Scali’s comment implies volumes are now in line with or flat on pre-COVID levels.
Additionally, Plush experiences high cancellation rates, which implies the true capacity of the business is lower than might be estimated from orders alone. Nick Scali now believes the like-for-like sales capacity of Plush, which excludes new stores is circa $90-100 million compared to the $111 million revenue reported in FY20.
Meanwhile, the outstanding order book of $112 million is down considerably from $139 million at the end of October, again reflecting the softening consumer backdrop.
Nick Scali can be counted among a select number of well-managed high-quality businesses listed on the ASX enjoying high margins, and high returns on equity. In the short run, however, investors will be asking if the first half of FY23 represents conditions that are as good as they get before high rates and increasing cost of living pressures weigh on the consumer.
Digging into the results reveals a deterioration late in the first half and extending into January. The order book has eased as product lead times normalize, and this means sustaining past sales revenue demands new orders and a higher conversion of ‘just-looking’. These will be harder to generate amid a more cautious consumer backdrop, which of course will eventually pass.
Roger Montgomery is the Founder and Chairman of Montgomery Investment Management. Roger has over three decades of experience in funds management and related activities, including equities analysis, equity and derivatives strategy, trading and stockbroking. Prior to establishing Montgomery, Roger held positions at Ord Minnett Jardine Fleming, BT (Australia) Limited and Merrill Lynch.
This post was contributed by a representative of Montgomery Investment Management Pty Limited (AFSL No. 354564). The principal purpose of this post is to provide factual information and not provide financial product advice. Additionally, the information provided is not intended to provide any recommendation or opinion about any financial product. Any commentary and statements of opinion however may contain general advice only that is prepared without taking into account your personal objectives, financial circumstances or needs. Because of this, before acting on any of the information provided, you should always consider its appropriateness in light of your personal objectives, financial circumstances and needs and should consider seeking independent advice from a financial advisor if necessary before making any decisions. This post specifically excludes personal advice.
Peter Gregory
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NCK has been my favourite stock for many years. Downturns are merely buying opportunities.
Roger Montgomery
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Hard to disagree with that for long-term investors Peter. I did note its a very high quality business, and at the end of my piece, that the current challenges “will eventually pass.”
Jeff Kornhauser
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Interesting observations Roger but I feel they may be a little too pessimistic. I think Anthony Scali explained the small Dec/Jan “downturn” well in his recent results conference call. 2022 was an exceptional year as sales soared coming out of covid, so it would have been difficult to match that.
Generally, Nick Scali has been one of the best performing retailers on the ASX 300 for over a decade.
The company continues to grow store numbers through acquisitions like Plush and organic growth of the Scali brand. The company now has more than double the stores it has 3 years years ago!
The dividend is always exceptional and to be frank although many were expecting a bigger recent dividend one only needs to read that the board chose instead to pay down the Plush debt and invest close to 10 million on property for a new QLD distribution centre.
What’s not to like about this company? The present 20% slide looks like little more than an short term overreaction.
Roger Montgomery
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One of the highest quality companies listed in Australia Jeff, and indeed exceptionally managed. At the end of my piece I noted this “of course will eventually pass.”