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As investors, we have a particular interest in Australia’s condition, its desirability as a destination for living and its quality as a destination for investing. For some time now, I have feared better destinations exist elsewhere. Whether deliberate or unwitting, the government is not prioritising the betterment of the nation. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in In the Press, Property.

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On November 30, 2022, the world marvelled at the release and conversational prowess of OpenAI’s ChatGPT. What the world might have missed, however, was the subtle shift that began rippling through the U.S. economy.

What started as a viral tech demo – capable of drafting emails, coding snippets, and even poetry – escalated into a full-blown revolution in large language models (LLMs) and artificial intelligence, now described as the fourth industrial revolution. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Technology & Telecommunications.

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In the sun-drenched suburbs of Sydney and the graffiti-covered laneways of Melbourne, electric vehicles (EVs) are silently zipping around, charging up in garages, and bringing smiles to the faces of those who voted for Labor’s march toward net zero.

It is, without doubt, a feel-good story: cleaner air for the user, reduced emissions for the suburb, and tech-savvy signalling to everyone else on the road. But beneath the glossy ads and government incentives lies a darker undercurrent – one that cybersecurity experts, former military leaders, and national security advisors have recently shouted from the rooftops. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Manufacturing.

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CrossBorder Capital’s latest report by founder Michael Howell paints an ominous picture of a maturing global liquidity cycle, raising concerns that the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (the Fed) waning role in providing liquidity (the fuel for market and asset rises) has negative implications for markets and the U.S. economy.

Howell’s analysis concentrates on the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, where a 25-basis-point rate cut was delivered alongside hints of further cuts, consistent with Trump’s demands. Yet, he labels this a “hawkish cut,” emphasising the Fed’s tough stance on liquidity. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, incoming appointee Stephen Miran, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent are reportedly aligned in their push to shrink the Fed’s balance sheet and minimise its market influence. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

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Financial markets are acting like a friend who says one thing but does another. Investors are sending conflicting messages about the economy, interest rates, and what’s coming next.

The mixed signals

Investors are betting that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by up to two per cent over this easing cycle. Trump of course, always the glutton, wants even more. That’s a big deal – rate cuts of this size usually happen when the economy is in trouble or heading into a recession. Lower rates make borrowing cheaper, encouraging spending and investment to boost a slowing economy. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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Markets sit at elevated levels, fuelled by optimism around artificial intelligence and the promise of lasting productivity gains. Yet beneath the excitement lies a complex mix of valuations, momentum, and risk – raising important questions about how investors can stay positioned if sentiment shifts.

Markets are expensive – observations and implications

There is a conga line of analysts, fund managers and commentators pointing out the extremes many traditional or conventional measures of value have now reached.  From price-to-earnings, price-to-book, and market-cap-to-Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to earnings and dividend yields, the U.S. S&P 500 is in rarified air when it comes to the price investors are willing to pay for exposure to future growth. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Digital Asset Funds Management, Market commentary, Market Valuation.

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In the past 14 months, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has cut its cash rate on seven separate occasions by an aggregate 3.0 per cent from 5.5 per cent to 2.5 per cent, as seen in Table 1.

Table 1. Reserve bank of New Zealand rate cuts Continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Global markets, Market commentary, Property.

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In this episode of Over the Money Fence, I joined Nicola and Di to unpack two of the most talked-about assets right now – gold and Bitcoin. We explored why gold has surged to record highs, and I explained why investors often turn to it in times of uncertainty. Gold can feel like a safe haven against fears of currency devaluation, central bank policy shifts, or geopolitical risks, but at its core, it’s more of a bet on fear than a long-term investment. I also touched on the practical ways Australians can gain exposure to gold, from bullion and exchange-traded funds to gold mining shares, and the unique costs and risks attached to each. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Investing Education, Market commentary, Podcast Channel.

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Amid the generational avalanche that is retiring baby boomers, Adviser Ratings released their 7th Annual Australian Financial Advice Landscape Report – 2025, earlier this month, which highlighted some fascinating shifts in the adviser ecosystem and in the relationship between clients and financial advisers. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Financial Services.

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Earlier this week, we published our Financial Year 2025 (FY25) Reporting Season calendar, so make sure you have a look at that. Here a quick overview of what you could be watching for as Australia’s FY25 reporting season gets underway.

While equity markets have demonstrated resilience through the first half of the year, this earnings season could prove to be an inflection point – one that will either reaffirm confidence or expose the cracks beneath recent optimism. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies.

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