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Last night on ABC Nightlife with Tim Webster, we unpacked the impact geopolitical tensions can have on markets, the Australian housing market and China’s deflation dilemma. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Radio.

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With U.S. President Donald Trump’s almost bipolar approach to domestic and foreign policy amid a drift to authoritarianism, investors in gold and bitcoin are demonstrating a belief that the U.S. dollar and American exceptionalism are simultaneously being undermined. Advisers globally, however, have the majority of their clients vastly underweight these assets in portfolios that remain highly exposed to stocks, and in particular, the S&P500 – an index whose sneeze causes everyone to catch a cold.

This article was first published in The Australian on 14 June 2025. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in In the Press.

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An examination of asset class returns over the last twelve months, including residential property in various capital cities, reveals Bitcoin’s superior performance. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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Keeping an eye on the condition of the U.S. economy is necessary for international equity investing, as changes will ultimately influence whether rates are cut. One recent data point suggests another sector of the economy there is slowing. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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I joined Paul Turton this morning on ABC Newcastle to discuss the pending interest rate decision and how its outcome could influence investors.

While interest rates, consumer confidence, tariffs and a weak Australian dollar all influence the investment landscape, the real focus should be on company fundamentals. Focussing on the long-term value of quality businesses is ultimately what drives shareholder returns. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Radio.

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In this interview with ABC News, we unpack the liquidity-fuelled rally sweeping global markets – from the resurgence of meme stocks and crypto to China’s massive $10 trillion stimulus. We also explore what’s next, as Trump’s tariffs are set to be finalised by Friday and speculation builds around a potential Fed rate cut. How might these developments shape the next phase of the market rally? Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in TV Appearances.

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Financial markets are acting like a friend who says one thing but does another. Investors are sending conflicting messages about the economy, interest rates, and what’s coming next.

The mixed signals

Investors are betting that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by up to two per cent over this easing cycle. Trump of course, always the glutton, wants even more. That’s a big deal – rate cuts of this size usually happen when the economy is in trouble or heading into a recession. Lower rates make borrowing cheaper, encouraging spending and investment to boost a slowing economy. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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Earlier this week, we published our Financial Year 2025 (FY25) Reporting Season calendar, so make sure you have a look at that. Here a quick overview of what you could be watching for as Australia’s FY25 reporting season gets underway.

While equity markets have demonstrated resilience through the first half of the year, this earnings season could prove to be an inflection point – one that will either reaffirm confidence or expose the cracks beneath recent optimism. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies.

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I joined Jess Maguire on Statewide Drive yesterday to discuss the question on many investors’ minds: why is the stock market hitting new highs, particularly given the current geopolitical environment? Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Radio.

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This week on ABC Statewide Drive with Jess Maguire, I explored the risks of stagflation and rising debt. While markets may look strong on the surface, the reality is more complex. Stagflation – when economic growth slows or stalls while prices continue to rise ­– creates a challenging environment for investors. We’re beginning to see signs of a slowing economy alongside persistent inflation, and that combination is far from ideal. So, what does this mean for share prices, and how should investors think about adapting their portfolios?

Listen to the full conversation from 1:44:30 here: Statewide Drive – Stagflation and rising debt

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Radio.

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