Popular Articles

Are housing prices on the way down, and what does war in the Middle East mean for markets, investors and their superannuation?

I joined Phil Clark on ABC Nightlife to unpack these issues, explaining why forecasts of sharp housing declines are unlikely given the strong incentives supporting prices, from migration to government policy and bank balance sheets. We also discussed how rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions could delay rate cuts, the potential for recent market gains to fade, and how the “SaaSpocalypse” (Software as a Service apocalypse) and artificial intelligence (AI) are impacting companies and investors.

Tune in to hear the segment: ABC Nightlife. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Property, Radio, Technology & Telecommunications.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Property, Radio, Technology & Telecommunications.

Australian consumer confidence has fallen to its lowest level in more than 50 years despite relatively low interest rates and unemployment compared to the early 1990s, with the key difference being a sharp rise in household debt, as debt-to-income ratios have more than quadrupled from around 45 per cent to 180 per cent. Combined with ongoing cost-of-living pressures, this has left households far more sensitive to economic shocks, contributing to a hollowing out of the middle class and increasing financial strain on younger generations even as a significant intergenerational wealth transfer unfolds. Continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Video Insights.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Economics, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Video Insights.

Today on Ausbiz with Juliette Saly, I discussed the growing hype around humanoid robots. While many companies promise household robots within a decade, leading roboticist Rodney Brooks believes major technical hurdles remain before they can perform meaningful work in homes or industry. 

We explored the limitations of bipedal design, the extraordinary dexterity of the human hand, and the safety challenges robots face when interacting with people. For investors, it is a reminder that technological excitement often runs ahead of reality, and markets can price in adoption long before the technology is ready. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Technology & Telecommunications, TV Appearances.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Technology & Telecommunications, TV Appearances.

I joined Juliette Saly on Ausbiz to discuss how the AI trade has shifted from hype to reality. Adoption is proving more cyclical than expected, customers will not pay any price for AI tools, and data centre rollouts face delays from regulation and power constraints. At the same time, higher inflation, rising debt and the end of ultra-low rates are putting pressure on valuations. Software as a Service (SaaS) businesses are being repriced, and sectors like real estate and travel are also starting to feel the impact, prompting investors to reassess risk.

Tune into the full episode here: Ausbiz – Has tech run its course? Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, TV Appearances.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Market commentary, TV Appearances.

In my article for Firstlinks, I explore the uneasy disconnect between human tragedy and market resilience. While war brings immeasurable suffering, history shows that equity markets often respond with surprising steadiness. From brief sell-offs ahead of conflict to rapid recoveries during it, markets seem to march on, focused on profits even as headlines scream chaos. With the current Middle East conflict unfolding, investors are once again asking: will history repeat itself, or is this time different?

You can read the article here: Firstlinks – War can’t be good, can it?

by Roger Montgomery Posted in On the Internet.

• READ ONLINE
• save this article
• POSTED IN On the Internet.

I joined Paul Turton today on ABC Newcastle Mornings to discuss the growing use of personalised or “surveillance” pricing, where companies use data like your browsing history, location or even behaviour in-store to charge different prices for the same product, often without consumers realising. I explained how this is already happening in areas like airline bookings and online shopping, and warned it could soon extend to essentials like groceries, with algorithms identifying what individuals are willing to pay and adjusting prices accordingly. While legal in many cases, I argued this practice erodes transparency, removes consumers’ ability to compare prices, and ultimately risks everyday Australians paying more, highlighting the need for stronger regulation to balance profit motives with fairness. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Radio, Technology & Telecommunications.

• LISTEN
• save this article
• POSTED IN Radio, Technology & Telecommunications.

On ABC Statewide Drive, I discussed why geopolitical shocks have historically caused short-term market volatility rather than lasting weakness, with many conflicts followed by relatively swift recoveries and resilient equity returns. I also noted that while the current Middle East conflict is unlikely to become a world war, investors still need to watch the broader risks beyond the headlines, including elevated valuations, persistent inflation, higher oil prices, rising U.S. debt and the unpredictability of Donald Trump, all of which could make 2026 a more volatile and consolidating year for markets.

Tune into the segment from 1:44:38 here: ABC Statewide Drive – conflict and markets

Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Radio.

• LISTEN
• save this article
• POSTED IN Radio.

With the prospect of a full-scale war in the Middle East increasing, with bond yields heating up, and with famed short seller Michael Burry increasing his short position against the U.S. SOXX Semiconductor Index, could this month be the month that investors will look back on with regret, wishing they’d diversified?

It’s a midterm election year in the U.S.

Let’s begin with the U.S. Midterm elections in mind. Did you know the midterm year is historically the worst year of the four-year presidential cycle for stocks? Some analysts suggest it’s because of something called the “midterm discount.” Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Energy / Resources, Global markets, Insightful Insights.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Economics, Energy / Resources, Global markets, Insightful Insights.

In economics, the wealth of a nation is built and sustained through production, and that production requires three ingredients: Land, Labour, and Capital. These are the finite building blocks of prosperity. Land provides the raw materials, Labour provides the muscle and the mind to transform them, and Capital represents the tools.

The primary challenge for every society has always been the efficient allocation of, and between, these inherently scarce resources. If you run out of one, growth grinds to a halt. You need all three. That was, it seems, up until recently, when it was proposed a fourth ingredient exists, and today this emerging thesis is inspiring stock market bulls. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Economics, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.