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As August 2025 has now wrapped up, Australia’s reporting season has again delivered a snapshot of the economy’s trajectory. For years, we’ve heard the refrain of a “resilient” domestic market weathering global headwinds, interest rate hikes, and inflationary pressures. But this time around, the narrative has evolved. Companies across the ASX are signalling that resilience is giving way to tentative recovery, particularly in consumer spending and the housing sectors. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Market commentary.

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With apologies to William Shakespeare, signs of a bit of froth and frenzy have begun to be acknowledged in markets this last week. As we have previously noted, liquidity is the fuel for such episodes, and as long as liquidity remains abundant, we should expect more, rather than less, evidence of irrationality. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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Anecdotal evidence. Dismissed as mostly irrelevant, anecdotal evidence becomes useful often only in hindsight. Until then, it’s a novelty, statistically unsound, unreliable, lacking objectivity and unverifiable.

But boy, it’s fun to inquire.

That was then

In the 1920s, the stock market was ‘roaring’, enjoying widespread optimism and even euphoria amid new innovations. On October 15, 1929, after the market had experienced a nine-year rise, the first celebrity Yale economist, Irving Fisher, gave a speech in New York City. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

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If you’re tracking equities, it’s vital to keep an eye on the bond markets, as they’re signalling genuine unease. That nervousness is now rippling through global economies. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Market commentary.

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With markets hitting record highs, debt warnings echoing, and artificial intelligence (AI) reshaping everything, there’s plenty to unpack. Here’s a quick look at four key topics of investor conversations.

Ray Dalio’s debt warning and the case for gold and bitcoin

The billionaire founder of hedge fund leviathan Bridgewater Associates, Ray Dalio, is a man fond of predicting recessions and crises. His are a reminder that in order to be an accurate forecaster, you merely have to forecast often. Eventually, you’ll be right, just as a stopped clock is right twice a day. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Market commentary.

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Since inflation peaked at 9.1 per cent in mid-2022, consumer prices have cooled dramatically, job growth has dwindled from nearly 4 per cent annually to a meagre 0.9 per cent, nominal gross domestic product (GDP) expansion has halved from 10 per cent to 4.6 per cent, and commodity prices have dropped 15 per cent. Despite all of this, bond yields have stubbornly refused to ease. Mainly hovering between 4 per cent and 5 per cent – and sitting at around 4 per cent today – bullish investors argue these yields are oddly, and unjustifiably, detached from the underlying economic slowdown. Real activity has tapered and consumer price index (CPI) inflation has plummeted to 2.9 per cent. So why haven’t yields collapsed? Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Investing Education, Market commentary.

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As I delve a little deeper into the aggregate artificial intelligence (AI) capital expenditure (capex) numbers and the revenue and profits subsequently required to recoup them, one thing stands out: a world of AI forecasts that are universally optimistic.

That’s not usual in any hype-inspired boom, but these numbers are extraordinary. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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On November 30, 2022, the world marvelled at the release and conversational prowess of OpenAI’s ChatGPT. What the world might have missed, however, was the subtle shift that began rippling through the U.S. economy.

What started as a viral tech demo – capable of drafting emails, coding snippets, and even poetry – escalated into a full-blown revolution in large language models (LLMs) and artificial intelligence, now described as the fourth industrial revolution. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Technology & Telecommunications.

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I joined Sean Aylmer on Fear + Greed yesterday to discuss Myer’s disappointing announcement of a 30 per cent decline in profit, which was followed by a 25 per cent drop in its share price.

So, what went wrong?

As a traditional bricks-and-mortar department store, Myer has been grappling with significant challenges. Its move into the highly competitive online retail space has brought debt and complex integration issues, while also placing it in direct competition with pure-play online retailers. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Market commentary, Podcast Channel.

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This U.S. summer, a new investment frenzy – akin to the SPAC (Special Purpose Acquisition Company) exuberance of 2020/21 – has gripped Wall Street as companies transform their balance sheets into crypto vaults. And as September unfolds, the corporate dash into cryptocurrencies shows no signs of slowing.

From Japanese hotel operators to chipmakers, tech startups, and legacy manufacturers, they have all funnelled tens of billions into Bitcoin and altcoins, reimagining their cash reserves as bets on digital assets. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Digital Asset Funds Management, Global markets, Market commentary.

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