Editor’s Pick
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Negative equity trap: Post Labor budget house price drops are wiping out buyers’ life savings
Roger Montgomery
August 14, 2026
Since Labor’s 2026 federal budget changes were handed down, Australia’s property market – particularly suburbs across Sydney and Melbourne – has experienced sharp price corrections.
While property commentators spent early 2026 tracking a largely flat, sideways trend in capital city housing (hovering around the $1.81M to $1.83M median mark in Sydney), the post-budget landscape has delivered a rude shock.
For homeowners who, for years, sacrificed and scrimped to save a 10 to 20 per cent deposit and then purchased or refinanced during 2025 or early 2026, these price falls are no longer just abstract paper losses – they represent a devastating hit to their wealth and equity. Indeed, all they’ve saved has been wiped out in a matter of months. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Investing Education, Market commentary.
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Why Aussie Broadband fits our investment approach
Gary Rollo
August 13, 2026
In this video I discuss Aussie Broadband (ASX: ABB), a growing challenger in Australia’s retail broadband market with around 15 per cent of the NBN market across its retail and wholesale services.
The company has delivered double-digit organic sales growth alongside acquisitions, while increasing scale may support further growth and operating efficiencies. Earnings are expected to grow over the next two years, supported by a cashflow-generative business and relatively low gearing.
While concerns around competition from Starlink have recently weighed on the share price, I explain why the current valuation may offer an attractive entry point if ABB continues to execute on its growth strategy. continue…
by Gary Rollo Posted in Companies, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Popular, Small Caps, Stocks We Like.
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What happens next at the Fed matters
Roger Montgomery
August 12, 2026
If the S&P 500 is the dog that wags the global stock markets’ collective tail, then the U.S. central bank – The Federal Reserve – is the brain controlling that dog. What happens at the Fed matters to almost every investor around the world.
And those investors have grown accustomed to dancing with a Federal Reserve that provided reams of forward guidance, as well as a dependable feedback loop. When the Fed spoke, markets adjusted, and increasingly innovative monetary policy smoothed over any volatility. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market commentary.
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Australia’s energy contradiction
David Buckland
August 11, 2026
The Energy Institute’s “Statistical Review of World Energy” for 2025 provides an interesting snapshot of how the world’s energy is supplied and, importantly, where Australia fits into the picture. The numbers reveal just how dependent we (and the rest of the world) are on oil, gas, and coal. But most interestingly, this report raises questions about Australia’s approach to nuclear energy, coal exports and decarbonisation. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Editor's Pick, Energy / Resources, Insightful Insights, Market commentary.
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MEDIA
The Australian – Global markets face reckoning as triple threat fractures appear
Roger Montgomery
August 10, 2026
In my latest article for The Australian, I explore the growing risks facing global markets as cracks emerge across technology, fixed income and inflation. With artificial intelligence (AI) investment increasingly circular, government debt climbing and inflation remaining stubborn, investors may need to prepare for a more volatile and challenging market environment.
Download here: Global markets face reckoning as triple threat fractures appear continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, In the Press, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation.
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WHITEPAPER
THE PROPERTY RUG PULL
Discover how proposed changes to negative gearing, Capital Gains Tax and holiday home tax rules could reshape property investing, and why investors may consider private credit as property returns become less certain and tax advantages diminish.
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Seeing red? Look at the bigger picture
Roger Montgomery
August 5, 2026
In this week’s Video Insight, I explain why market volatility is a normal part of investing. While market pullbacks can feel unsettling, history shows they’ve often been temporary and have regularly occurred even in years that finished with strong returns. The key is staying disciplined and keeping your focus on the long term. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Intrinsic Value, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Video Insights.
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A bullish investor’s reminder
Roger Montgomery
July 31, 2026
Every time the stock market stumbles a percentage point or two, headlines invariably scream the same ominous question: Is the big market crash finally here?
It’s easy to sympathise with investor nervousness, despite the S&P500 being less than three per cent from all-time highs. Tensions overseas are triggering spikes in energy prices as strategic reserves are depleted, inflation persists at rates well above central bank preferences, interest rates remain unpredictable, and tech valuations and AI-related spending seem perpetually stretched.
But look beneath the surface of recent market pullbacks, and a different picture emerges.
It helps to understand the mechanics of market volatility, which isn’t about predicting the exact day a dip will happen, but rather recognising the difference between run-of-the-mill turbulence and structural damage. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation.
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Right now, concentration is your portfolio’s biggest threat
Roger Montgomery
July 30, 2026
On the surface, markets appear remarkably resilient, so if you’ve felt a sense of calm looking at your portfolio performance lately, you aren’t alone.
But look beneath the surface and the structural fragility you’ll see in valuations, government debt, and global trade makes holding a narrow, concentrated equity portfolio (including any portfolio largely invested in index ETFs) one of the more dangerous bets an investor can make right now. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Intrinsic Value, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Popular, Technology & Telecommunications.
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MEDIA
Ausbiz – The ‘profitless rally’
Roger Montgomery
July 23, 2026
I joined Juliette Saly on Ausbiz to discuss how the rise of passive investing is reshaping markets. With ETFs and index funds now dominating trading, quality-focused active managers are struggling as money flows into the biggest index constituents regardless of valuation or fundamentals. While this trend may continue for some time, market cycles eventually turn, and when they do, companies with strong fundamentals, high-quality balance sheets and durable cash flows are likely to come back into favour.
Watch the episode here: The “profitless rally” Roger thinks could end badly continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, TV Appearances.
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A crisis of quality – What’s wrong with active management?
Roger Montgomery
July 23, 2026
When I wrote Value.able in 2010, ‘Quality’ as an investing factor was gospel, a foundational truth: buying fundamentally superior businesses at reasonable prices and holding them over the long run was the surest path to wealth creation.
Individuals like Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, Mohnish Pabrai, Seth Klarman, Howard Marks and Terry Smith proved, over decades, that Quality rules. Superior Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) or Return on Equity (ROE), high gross margins, and consistent Free Cash Flow (FCF) conversion inevitably compounded a company’s equity, and ultimately produced outsized returns for investors in those businesses. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation.
